College Hoops Conference Road Play
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
01/16/2007 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - How can bettors get an edge in college
basketball with so many conference games coming their way? Many teams have a
decided homecourt advantage, but the pointspread has a way of evening things
out. For example, Villanova finished 7-1 SU last year at home versus the Big
East but only 3-5 ATS. Interestingly enough, the Wildcats also were 7-1 SU and
3-5 ATS in conference road play.
There is quite a difference between playing at home and playing on the road,
and the Big Ten is a perfect example. It proved to be the toughest conference
to win away from home in the 2005-06 season. Michigan State went 6-2 SU and
5-3 ATS at home, but only 2-6 SU and ATS on the road. The Buckeyes and the
Fighting Illini were the only schools that were 4-4 or better SU away
from home.
The Big Tens road winning percentage was 29.5%. Ohio State was the only
school that finished above .500 both SU and ATS. The Big East and ACC each had
road SU winning percentages of 37.5%, the SEC was at 39.6% and the Big 12 was
at 33%.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Pac-10 was a much easier conference to
win away from home. The road team won an exceptional 43% of league games. When
betting games this season, its extremely important to pay attention to
conference stats and to keep track of important information.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
How do all these numbers play into ATS records? Its very common for a road
team to have a better ATS than SU record. Eleven of the 16 Big East schools
did just that, while eight of the 12 ACC teams had a superior ATS mark than
their SU record. However, only one club in the top six conferences (SEC,
Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-10, ACC and Big East) ended up over .500 SU and still had
a better ATS record in league road play. I'll have the answer at the end of
the column.
Since the Big Ten had the worst SU record at 29.5%, it would make sense that
the league would finish at the bottom against the spread. And it did. The
conference was 36-49-3 ATS for a winning percentage of 43. Four teams
(Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana and Iowa) combined for a 7-25
ATS record on the road, while Purdue finished 4-3-1 ATS despite a 0-8 SU mark!
Two other clubs were winless on the road in conference play, yet dominated
against the spread. Georgia Tech and South Florida combined to go 0-16 SU in
their respective leagues, yet were 12-4 ATS. The Bulls routinely were getting
double-digits against Big East super-powers and hung close to cover the spread
in most games.
However, being a league doormat doesn't automatically make that team a money-
making ATS machine. Wake Forest, Mississippi State and Baylor were all winless
and combined for a losing ATS record at 10-14.
The two conferences that had the most SU success also were tops against the
spread. The road teams in the SEC and Pac-10 combined to hit on 57% ATS.
Betting road clubs down south was easy money as only one SEC squad, Ole Miss,
finished below .500 ATS.
Two other conferences were over .500 as the Big East finished at 55% and the
ACC ended up at 53%. The Big 12, like the Big Ten, was below .500 at 48%.
NO CHAMPAGNE IN CHAMPAIGN
Illinois was 15-10 ATS last season. Two years ago, the Illini went 12-9-2.
What has happened in Champaign in 06-07? Illinois is currently 2-12 ATS,
and Bruce Webers club has failed to cover its last 10.
Were Dee Brown and James Augustine THAT important to the success of the team?
Apparently so! The Illini have opened the Big Ten season at 1-3 SU and already
have lost six games, one less than all of last year.
Illinois travels to Minnesota this Wednesday night to face another club that
has struggled. All five starters from last year are gone and so is coach Dan
Monson. The Gophers are the only Big Ten team that is below .500 at 7-10, but
they've split their last six games.
The Big Ten was the most dominant home conference last year, so this contest
will be a good test to see if that trend holds true. Minnesota is already 1-0
SU and ATS at home after having stopped Purdue as a home dog back on January
3.
VCU - A MINI FLORIDA?
Virginia Commonwealth finished 19-10 last season but only sixth in the very
competitive CAA. George Mason stunned the country with its magical run to the
Final Four, while UNC Wilmington also made the field of 64. Some would say
that Hofstra deserved to go as well.
VCU went out and hired one of Billy Donovans assistants, Anthony Grant, as
its new head coach. All the Rams have done this year is win 14 of their first
17 games, losing the three contests by a grand total of seven points. They
currently are undefeated and in first place in the conference at 6-0.
One aspect of their play that has given them a decided edge in OVER/UNDERS has
been an up-tempo style brought over from Coach Grants days at Florida. VCU
has gone over the number in six of its last seven games. Not only are the Rams
going OVER, they are obliterating the total. Three of their last five contests
have seen the combined final score in the 160s, while the total was listed
between 125 and 136. This is something to keep an eye on as the season
progresses.
Trivia answer: Kentucky. The Wildcats were 5-3 SU and a very impressive 6-1-1
ATS away from home in conference play.
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Davis, Warriors battle past Clippers >>
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Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.
Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.
Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.
Memphis vs. Ohio State
Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.
UCLA vs. Kansas
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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